When the land power overlooks the oceans
With the rapid decline of Europe navy strength and the cut of U.S. Navy forces, China is to shoulder the way to oceans. Beijing emerges a heated debate for the first time in history: Is China a land power or sea power?
Building a navy requires a particularly long lead time. The designing, financing and building of ships requires thinking in terms of at least two decades. Providing experienced commanders and trained crews takes longer.
People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) has altered its inward-looking stance and is expanding strongly in parallel with China’s emergence as a world superpower. It is not necessarily a preparation to being an aggressor, but as a predictable ‘gearing up’ to defending its expanding trade routes, strategic raw material imports and export pipeline. It is now an active participator in the Combined Naval Task Force.
The Chinese Navy's expansion program began in the 1990s, as China's fleet began to venture away from China's coast and develop blue water (open ocean) capabilities. Now Chinese submarines encounter U.S. Navy task forces, and Chinese warships turn up in the Indian Ocean. China may launch its first aircraft carrier in 2011. It will take years to produce carrier pilots and crew comparable to those in the Navy, but acquiring the technology is a huge step.
What does China intend to do with its carrier? The rest of Asia, from India to Japan, wants to know. For example, Chinese maritime claims in the South China Sea conflict sharply with those of Vietnam and the Philippines. A carrier extends China's offensive reach in this contested sea zone.
The carrier is one piece of a complex puzzle that includes new surface ships, aircraft and missiles.
The DF-21D gives Chinese land forces a weapon that can sink a U.S. carrier at long range. This means U.S. naval forces supporting South Korea or Japan face higher risks as they approach the mainland, which U.S. analysts conclude is China's intention.
The Chinese economic miracle requires Middle Eastern energy and African minerals. The Indian Navy could quickly cut the supply chain, unless China has a navy capable of protecting it.
The naval budget also is crucial, and China appears to be growing its naval budget quickly. Budget isn't everything, as the country has to grow its naval/industrial complex to deliver. Take aircraft carriers, where they are building their construction capability - they purchased the uncompleted Varyag carrier from the Ukraine and have been refurbishing it for years. They now have several conventional and nuclear powered carriers in their plans, but it's likely to take at least another fifteen years before they are operational.
Defence electronics is a critical area too, but given China's aerial electronics current capability, then 'technology drag' is less likely to be an issue.
Which leads to another line of analysis: China does not seek a war, but it wants to guarantee its own maritime trade security. Hence, the increase in capabilities.
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